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Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed

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  • Fayez Abdulla
  • Tamer Eshtawi
  • Hamed Assaf

Abstract

With a yearly precipitation of 200 mm in most of the country, Jordan is considered one of the least water-endowed regions in the world. Water scarcity in Jordan is exacerbated by growing demands driven by population and industrial growth and rising living standards. Major urban and industrial centers in Jordan including the Capital Amman are concentrated in the northern highlands, mostly contained within the boundaries of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW). The ZRW is the third most productive basin in the greater Jordan River System. King Talal Dam was built a few kilometers upstream of the Zarqa-Jordan confluence to regulate its input mostly for the benefit of agricultural activities in the Jordan Valley. Concerns regarding the sensitivity of the ZRW to potential climate change have prompted the authors to carry out the current study. The methodology adopted is based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change scenarios. Utilizing the BASINS-HSPF modeling environment, scenarios represent ing climate conditions with ±20% change in rainfall, and 1°C, 2°C and 3.5°C increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The HSPF model was calibrated for the ZRW using records spanning from 1980 through 1994. The model was validated against an independent data record extending from 1995 through 2002. Calibration and verification results were assessed based on linear regression fitting of monthly and daily flows. Monthly calibration and verifications produced good fit with regression coefficient r values equal to 0.928 and 0.923, respectively. Assessment based on daily records show much more modest r value of 0.785. The study shows that climate warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Fayez Abdulla & Tamer Eshtawi & Hamed Assaf, 2009. "Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(10), pages 2051-2068, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:23:y:2009:i:10:p:2051-2068
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-008-9369-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Akinchan Singhai & Sandipan Das & Ajaykumar K. Kadam & J. P. Shukla & D. S. Bundela & Mahesh Kalashetty, 2019. "GIS-based multi-criteria approach for identification of rainwater harvesting zones in upper Betwa sub-basin of Madhya Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 777-797, April.
    2. Stefan Liehr & Julia Röhrig & Marion Mehring & Thomas Kluge, 2017. "How the Social-Ecological Systems Concept Can Guide Transdisciplinary Research and Implementation: Addressing Water Challenges in Central Northern Namibia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Amir AghaKouchak & Nasrin Nasrollahi, 2010. "Semi-parametric and Parametric Inference of Extreme Value Models for Rainfall Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1229-1249, April.
    4. Dave Deckers & Martijn Booij & Tom Rientjes & Maarten Krol, 2010. "Catchment Variability and Parameter Estimation in Multi-Objective Regionalisation of a Rainfall–Runoff Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3961-3985, November.
    5. Jawad Taleb Al-Bakri & Mohammad Salahat & Ayman Suleiman & Marwan Suifan & Mohammad R. Hamdan & Saeb Khresat & Tarek Kandakji, 2013. "Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Martin Hanel & Magdalena Mrkvičková & Petr Máca & Adam Vizina & Pavel Pech, 2013. "Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5261-5279, December.
    7. Concepcion Pla & Javier Valdes-Abellan & Antonio Jose Tenza-Abril & David Benavente, 2016. "Predicting Daily Water Table Fluctuations in Karstic Aquifers from GIS-Based Modelling, Climatic Settings and Extraction Wells," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2531-2545, May.
    8. A. Capra & S. Consoli & B. Scicolone, 2013. "Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 601-617, January.
    9. Tran Ty & Kengo Sunada & Yutaka Ichikawa & Satoru Oishi, 2012. "Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam—Cambodia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1387-1407, March.
    10. March, Hug & Therond, Olivier & Leenhardt, Delphine, 2012. "Water futures: Reviewing water-scenario analyses through an original interpretative framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 126-137.
    11. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. N. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    12. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    13. Amani Alfarra & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Heinz Hötzl & Nayif Sader & Ben Sonneveld, 2011. "A Framework for Wastewater Reuse in Jordan: Utilizing a Modified Wastewater Reuse Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1153-1167, March.

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