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Prediction-Oriented Marker Selection (PROMISE): With Application to High-Dimensional Regression


  • Soyeon Kim

    () (Rice University
    The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center)

  • Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani

    () (The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center)

  • J. Jack Lee

    () (The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center)


Abstract In personalized medicine, biomarkers are used to select therapies with the highest likelihood of success based on an individual patient’s biomarker/genomic profile. Two goals are to choose important biomarkers that accurately predict treatment outcomes and to cull unimportant biomarkers to reduce the cost of biological and clinical verifications. These goals are challenging due to the high dimensionality of genomic data. Variable selection methods based on penalized regression (e.g., the lasso and elastic net) have yielded promising results. However, selecting the right amount of penalization is critical to simultaneously achieving these two goals. Standard approaches based on cross-validation (CV) typically provide high prediction accuracy with high true positive rates (TPRs) but at the cost of too many false positives. Alternatively, stability selection (SS) controls the number of false positives, but at the cost of yielding too few true positives. To circumvent these issues, we propose prediction-oriented marker selection (PROMISE), which combines SS with CV to conflate the advantages of both methods. Our application of PROMISE with the lasso and elastic net in data analysis shows that, compared to CV, PROMISE produces sparse solutions, few false positives, and small type I + type II error, and maintains good prediction accuracy, with a marginal decrease in the TPRs. Compared to SS, PROMISE offers better prediction accuracy and TPRs. In summary, PROMISE can be applied in many fields to select regularization parameters when the goals are to minimize false positives and maximize prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyeon Kim & Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani & J. Jack Lee, 2017. "Prediction-Oriented Marker Selection (PROMISE): With Application to High-Dimensional Regression," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 217-245, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stabio:v:9:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12561-016-9169-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s12561-016-9169-5

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nicolai Meinshausen & Peter Bühlmann, 2010. "Stability selection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(4), pages 417-473.
    2. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    3. Jianqing Fan & Jinchi Lv, 2008. "Sure independence screening for ultrahigh dimensional feature space," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 849-911.
    4. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768.
    5. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320.
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