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Intraday return and volatility relationships between the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Juan A. Lafuente

    () (Departamento de Finanzas y Contabilidad, Universidad Jaume I, 12071 Castellón, Spain)

Abstract

This paper analyses the intraday lead-lag relationships between returns and volatilities in the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets. Using hourly data, we jointly analyze the interactions between markets, estimating a bivariate error correction model with GARCH perturbations which captures stochastically the presence of an intraday U-shaped curve for both spot and futures market volatility. Our findings show a bidirectional causal relationship between market volatilities, with a positive feedback. This two-way transmission of volatility is consistent with market prices evolving according to a long-run equilibrium relationship, and shocks affecting both markets in the same direction. Our empirical results also support a unidirectional cross interaction from futures to spot market returns. This pattern suggests that the futures market leads the spot market in order to incorporate the arrival of new information.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan A. Lafuente, 2002. "Intraday return and volatility relationships between the Ibex 35 spot and futures markets," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 201-220.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:4:y:2002:i:3:p:201-220
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    Cited by:

    1. Arık, Evren & Mutlu, Elif, 2014. "Chinese steel market in the post-futures period," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 10-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures; stock index; conditional heteroskedasticity; market interactions;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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