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Import Dependence and Import Substitution in Russia: Assessment Based on Resource and Use Tables

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  • A. M. Kalinin

    (State consulting Business Solutions LLC/SBS)

Abstract

— The article discusses issues related to the assessment of import dependence and the results of the import substitution policy in the period 2016–2020. An overview of options for assessing import dependence indicators is provided, and the possibility of using resource and use tables published by Rosstat is substantiated. The main analysis tool is calculated tables of import dependence indicators. In addition, econometric modeling is used to test the significance of individual factors. It has been established that for the vast majority of industries and products in the period 2016–2020, there was no monotonic reduction in import dependence. For approximately half of the types of products, markets and industries under consideration, fluctuations in the share of imports in 2016–2020 were insignificant or not sufficiently stable. At the same time, there is evidence of significant and significant import substitution in certain segments, including those reflecting the efforts of the state. Taking into account the current state of the Russian economy and external conditions of socio-economic development, the currently declared emphasis on ensuring technological sovereignty can be considered justified, but the practical implementation of the import substitution policy in comparison with the period 2016–2020 should be more effective, both in terms of volume and effectiveness of the tools used.

Suggested Citation

  • A. M. Kalinin, 2024. "Import Dependence and Import Substitution in Russia: Assessment Based on Resource and Use Tables," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 171-179, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700724020072
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724020072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Zamaraev & T. Marshova., 2015. "Production Capacity of Russian Industry: Potential of Import Substitution and Economic Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    2. E. B. Lenchuk, 2023. "Technological Modernization as a Basis for the Anti-Sanctions Policy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 464-472, August.
    3. Berezinskaya, Olga (Березинская, Ольга), 2015. "National Currency Rate and the Russian Economy Dependence on Import [Курс Национальной Валюты И Зависимость Российской Экономики От Импорта]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 112-125, February.
    4. D. Manturov & G. Nikitin & V. Osmakov, 2016. "The Russian government approach to import substitution planning in industry," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 9.
    5. D. Manturov & G. Nikitin & V. Osmakov., 2016. "The Russian government approach to import substitution planning in industry," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
    6. A. M. Kalinin & S. S. Koroteev & A. A. Krupin & A. V. Nefedov, 2021. "Technological Import Dependence of the Russian Economy: An Assessment Using Input–Output Tables," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 52-58, January.
    7. B. Zamaraev & T. Marshova, 2015. "Production capacity of Russian industry: Potential of import Substitution and economic Growth," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 6.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zemlyanskii, D. & Chuzhenkova, V., 2025. "Production dependence on import in the Russian regions after 2022," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 282-290.

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