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Stochastic modelling of the first-citation distribution

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  • Quentin L. Burrel

    (Friary Park)

Abstract

A simple stochastic model, based upon mixtures of non-homogeneous Poisson processes, is proposed to describe the citation process in the presence of ageing/obsolescence. Particular emphasis is placed upon investigation of the first-citation distribution where it is shown that in the presence of ageing there will inevitably be never cited items. Conditions are given which show how the model is capable of modelling the various shapes of first citation distributions reported in the literature. In particular, the essential link between the first citation distribution and the obsolescence distribution is established.

Suggested Citation

  • Quentin L. Burrel, 2001. "Stochastic modelling of the first-citation distribution," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 52(1), pages 3-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:52:y:2001:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1012751509975
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1012751509975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Quentin L. Burrell, 1990. "Using the Gamma‐Poisson model to predict library circulations," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 41(3), pages 164-170, April.
    2. Leo Egghe, 2000. "A Heuristic Study of the First-Citation Distribution," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 48(3), pages 345-359, July.
    3. H. S. Sichel, 1985. "A bibliometric distribution which really works," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 36(5), pages 314-321, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mingyang Wang & Jiaqi Zhang & Guangsheng Chen & Kah-Hin Chai, 2019. "Examining the influence of open access on journals’ citation obsolescence by modeling the actual citation process," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(3), pages 1621-1641, June.
    2. Wolfgang Glänzel & Balázs Schlemmer & Bart Thijs, 2003. "Better late than never? On the chance to become highly cited only beyond the standard bibliometric time horizon," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 58(3), pages 571-586, November.
    3. Wolfgang Glänzel, 2004. "Towards a model for diachronous and synchronous citation analyses," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 60(3), pages 511-522, August.
    4. Quentin L. Burrell, 2007. "Time-dependent aspects of co-concentration in informetrics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 73(2), pages 161-174, November.
    5. Anthony G. Stacey, 2021. "Ages of cited references and growth of scientific knowledge: an explication of the gamma distribution in business and management disciplines," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 619-640, January.
    6. João A G Moreira & Xiao Han T Zeng & Luís A Nunes Amaral, 2015. "The Distribution of the Asymptotic Number of Citations to Sets of Publications by a Researcher or from an Academic Department Are Consistent with a Discrete Lognormal Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Christopher Watts & Nigel Gilbert, 2011. "Does cumulative advantage affect collective learning in science? An agent-based simulation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 437-463, October.
    8. Mingyang Wang & Guang Yu & Shuang An & Daren Yu, 2012. "Discovery of factors influencing citation impact based on a soft fuzzy rough set model," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 93(3), pages 635-644, December.
    9. Lee, Changyong & Cho, Yangrae & Seol, Hyeonju & Park, Yongtae, 2012. "A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 16-29.
    10. Tian Yu & Guang Yu & Peng-Yu Li & Liang Wang, 2014. "Citation impact prediction for scientific papers using stepwise regression analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(2), pages 1233-1252, November.
    11. Leo Egghe, 2007. "Probabilities for encountering genius, basic, ordinary or insignificant papers based on the cumulative nth citation distribution," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(1), pages 167-181, January.
    12. Saralees Nadarajah & Samuel Kotz, 2007. "Models for citation behavior," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 72(2), pages 291-305, August.
    13. J Mingers, 2008. "Exploring the dynamics of journal citations: Modelling with s-curves," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(8), pages 1013-1025, August.
    14. Quentin L. Burrell, 2002. "Modelling citation age data: Simple graphical methods from reliability theory," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 55(2), pages 273-285, August.
    15. Quentin L. Burrell, 2014. "The individual author’s publication–citation process: theory and practice," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 98(1), pages 725-742, January.
    16. Quentin L. Burrell, 2002. "The nth-citation distribution and obsolescence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 53(3), pages 309-323, March.

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