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Methods to Elicit Probability Distributions from Experts: A Systematic Review of Reported Practice in Health Technology Assessment

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  • Bogdan Grigore
  • Jaime Peters
  • Christopher Hyde
  • Ken Stein

Abstract

Judged by the studies identified in the review, reports of expert elicitation are insufficient in detail and this impacts on the perceived usability of expert-elicited probability distributions. In this context, the wider credibility of elicitation will only be improved by better reporting and greater standardisation of approach. Until then, the advantage of eliciting probability distributions from experts may be lost. Copyright Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Grigore & Jaime Peters & Christopher Hyde & Ken Stein, 2013. "Methods to Elicit Probability Distributions from Experts: A Systematic Review of Reported Practice in Health Technology Assessment," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 31(11), pages 991-1003, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:pharme:v:31:y:2013:i:11:p:991-1003
    DOI: 10.1007/s40273-013-0092-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher & Chris McCabe & Andrew Briggs & Ron Akehurst & Martin Buxton & John Brazier & Tony O'Hagan, 2005. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 339-347, April.
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    1. Antoine Poncet & Baris Gencer & Marc Blondon & Marianne Gex-Fabry & Christophe Combescure & Dipen Shah & Peter J Schwartz & Marie Besson & François R Girardin, 2015. "Electrocardiographic Screening for Prolonged QT Interval to Reduce Sudden Cardiac Death in Psychiatric Patients: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, June.

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