IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v92y2018i2d10.1007_s11069-018-3233-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Author

Listed:
  • Hing-Ho Tsang

    (Swinburne University of Technology)

  • James E. Daniell

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

  • Friedemann Wenzel

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

  • Amelie C. Werner

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Hing-Ho Tsang & James E. Daniell & Friedemann Wenzel & Amelie C. Werner, 2018. "A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 943-969, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3233-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Douglas & Thomas Ulrich & Caterina Negulescu, 2013. "Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1999-2013, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hing-Ho Tsang, 2019. "Innovative Upscaling of Architectural Elements for Strengthening Building Structures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Celano, Francesca & Dolšek, Matjaž, 2021. "Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ismaël Riedel & Philippe Guéguen, 2018. "Modeling of damage-related earthquake losses in a moderate seismic-prone country and cost–benefit evaluation of retrofit investments: application to France," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 639-662, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3233-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.