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Synoptic conditions associated with cool season post-fire debris flows in the Transverse Ranges of southern California

Author

Listed:
  • Nina S. Oakley

    (Western Regional Climate Center
    Desert Research Institute
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

  • Jeremy T. Lancaster

    (California Geological Survey)

  • Michael L. Kaplan

    (Desert Research Institute)

  • F. Martin Ralph

    (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

Abstract

The Transverse Ranges of southern California often experience fire followed by flood. This sequence sometimes causes post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) that threaten life and property situated on alluvial fans. The combination of steep topography, highly erodible rock and soil, and wildfire, coupled with intense rainfall, can initiate PFDFs even in cases of relatively small storm rainfall totals. This study identifies common atmospheric conditions during which damaging PFDFs occur in the Transverse Ranges during the cool season, defined here as November–March. A compilation of 93 PFDF events during 1980–2014 triggered by 19 precipitation events is compared against previous studies of the events, reanalysis, precipitation, and radar data to estimate PFDF trigger times. Each event was analyzed to determine common atmospheric features and their range of values present at and preceding the trigger time. Results show atmospheric rivers are a dominant feature, observed in 13 of the 19 events. Other common features include low-level winds orthogonal to the Transverse Ranges and other conditions favorable for orographic forcing, a strong upper level jet south of the region, and moist-neutral static stability. Several events included closed low-pressure systems or narrow cold frontal rain bands. These findings can help forecasters identify more precisely the synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions required to produce PFDF-triggering rainfall and thus reduce uncertainty when issuing warnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina S. Oakley & Jeremy T. Lancaster & Michael L. Kaplan & F. Martin Ralph, 2017. "Synoptic conditions associated with cool season post-fire debris flows in the Transverse Ranges of southern California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 327-354, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2867-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2867-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Parise & S. Cannon, 2012. "Wildfire impacts on the processes that generate debris flows in burned watersheds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(1), pages 217-227, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabricio Polifke Silva & Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho & Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi da Silva & Rafael João Sampaio & Gisele Dornelles Pires & Afonso Augusto Magalhães Araújo, 2020. "Identification of rainfall and atmospheric patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3745-3764, September.
    2. Fabricio Polifke Silva & Alfredo Silveira Silva & Maria Gertrudes Alvarez Justi Silva & Gisele Dornelles Pires, 2022. "Assessment of WRF numerical model forecasts using different lead time initializations during extreme precipitation events over Macaé city, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 695-718, January.

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