IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v78y2015i2p1225-1241.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of meteorological services under extreme weather conditions based on a Bayesian decision-support model: a case study of the thunderstorms in Beijing on July 21, 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Haibo Hu
  • Xudong Liang
  • Fengchun You
  • Jisong Sun

Abstract

The decision-making procedures of the meteorological service concerning the extreme thunderstorm in Beijing on July 21, 2012, were simulated and analyzed in a scenario using a Bayesian decision-support model. A thorough analysis of the decision-making process during that terrible thunderstorm demonstrated that a decision-support model can be used to make optimal decisions regarding uncertainty problems in the meteorological service supported by current meteorological technology and data resources, e.g., the mesoscale numeric weather prediction (NWP) system and observational data. Using NWP grid data, we assessed the flooding and debris flow risks on that day, and the high risks were clearly apparent. Consulting the historical flooding records, we also recognized the high thunderstorm risk that day even though the predicted precipitation was reported as 100–200 mm in most areas. Because of the low probability of extreme precipitation indicated by climate data, the posteriori probability estimated by the Bayesian model was only 23.1 %. For the differences between expected losses in a disaster and a non-disaster state, issuing a prediction for a non-disaster state could obviously lead to greater expected losses than predicting a disaster state. Therefore, it would be advisable to provide a disaster state prediction and take a correspondingly worst case scenario outlook in the meteorological service, which was the optimal decision-making strategy at that time. This study reveals that (1) the objective promotion of an emergency response level corresponding to a severe weather warning is recommended to realize the advantages of a worst case scenario prediction, even if the forecasters underestimate the devastating impact of the weather, and thus, it can obviously relieve unnecessary pressure on forecasters, and (2) the public should be provided with uncertainty information along with severe weather forecasts and warnings so, as the end users of meteorological services, they can make better informed decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Haibo Hu & Xudong Liang & Fengchun You & Jisong Sun, 2015. "An analysis of meteorological services under extreme weather conditions based on a Bayesian decision-support model: a case study of the thunderstorms in Beijing on July 21, 2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1225-1241, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:2:p:1225-1241
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1766-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1766-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1766-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaizhong Li & Shaohong Wu & Erfu Dai & Zhongchun Xu, 2012. "Flood loss analysis and quantitative risk assessment in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 737-760, September.
    2. Volker Meyer & Sebastian Scheuer & Dagmar Haase, 2009. "A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde river, Germany," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(1), pages 17-39, January.
    3. Bruno Merz & Annegret Thieken, 2009. "Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(3), pages 437-458, December.
    4. Wen-Ko Hsu & Chun-Pin Tseng & Wei-Ling Chiang & Cheng-Wu Chen, 2012. "Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1355-1365, April.
    5. Yi-Ru Chen & Chao-Hsien Yeh & Bofu Yu, 2011. "Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1261-1276, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. HaiBo Hu, 2016. "Rainstorm flash flood risk assessment using genetic programming: a case study of risk zoning in Beijing," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 485-500, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Burgess & Michael Taylor & Tannecia Stephenson & Arpita Mandal & Leiska Powell, 2015. "A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 231-256, August.
    2. Yus Budiyono & Jeroen Aerts & JanJaap Brinkman & Muh Marfai & Philip Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 389-413, January.
    3. Yi-Ru Chen & Chao-Hsien Yeh & Bofu Yu, 2016. "Flood damage assessment of an urban area in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1045-1055, September.
    4. H. Moel & J. Aerts, 2011. "Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 407-425, July.
    5. G. Papaioannou & L. Vasiliades & A. Loukas, 2015. "Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework for Potential Flood Prone Areas Mapping," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 399-418, January.
    6. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Inundation Duration and Velocity on Selection of Flood Management Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2543-2561, June.
    7. Stefanos Stefanidis & Dimitrios Stathis, 2013. "Assessment of flood hazard based on natural and anthropogenic factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 569-585, September.
    8. Bandi Aneesha Satya & Meshapam Shashi & Deva Pratap, 2019. "A geospatial approach to flash flood hazard mapping in the city of Warangal, Telangana, India," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, September.
    9. H. Moel & B. Jongman & H. Kreibich & B. Merz & E. Penning-Rowsell & P. Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 865-890, August.
    10. Nimrabanu Memon & Dhruvesh P. Patel & Naimish Bhatt & Samir B. Patel, 2020. "Integrated framework for flood relief package (FRP) allocation in semiarid region: a case of Rel River flood, Gujarat, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 279-311, January.
    11. A.-P. Theochari & M. Develekou & E. Baltas, 2022. "GIS-Based Multi-criteria Approach Towards Sustainability of Flood-Susceptible Areas in Giofiros River Basin, Greece," Circular Economy and Sustainability,, Springer.
    12. Annemarie Müller, 2013. "Flood risks in a dynamic urban agglomeration: a conceptual and methodological assessment framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1931-1950, February.
    13. Pujun Liang & Wei Xu & Yunjia Ma & Xiujuan Zhao & Lianjie Qin, 2017. "Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, August.
    14. Moumita Palchaudhuri & Sujata Biswas, 2016. "Application of AHP with GIS in drought risk assessment for Puruliya district, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1905-1920, December.
    15. Sebastian Scheuer & Dagmar Haase & Volker Meyer, 2011. "Exploring multicriteria flood vulnerability by integrating economic, social and ecological dimensions of flood risk and coping capacity: from a starting point view towards an end point view of vulnera," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(2), pages 731-751, August.
    16. Antje Otto & Kristine Kern & Wolfgang Haupt & Peter Eckersley & Annegret H. Thieken, 2021. "Ranking local climate policy: assessing the mitigation and adaptation activities of 104 German cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-23, July.
    17. O. Ionuş & M. Licurici & M. Pătroescu & S. Boengiu, 2015. "Assessment of flood-prone stripes within the Danube drainage area in the South-West Oltenia Development Region, Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 69-88, February.
    18. Wen-Chun Lo & Ting-Chi Tsao & Chih-Hao Hsu, 2012. "Building vulnerability to debris flows in Taiwan: a preliminary study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(3), pages 2107-2128, December.
    19. Zijun Qie & Lili Rong, 2017. "An integrated relative risk assessment model for urban disaster loss in view of disaster system theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 165-190, August.
    20. Bin Ou-Yang & Chun-Chao Chu & Ya-Bin Da & Xiao-Fei Liu & Hai-Ying Zhang, 2015. "Highway flood disaster risk evaluation and management in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 381-397, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:2:p:1225-1241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.