The role of natural ecosystems and socio-economic factors in the vulnerability of coastal villages to cyclone and storm surge

Vulnerability assessment due to tropical storms has been attempted for larger spatial units, and the roles played by natural ecosystems like mangroves or hydrological variables like proximity to rivers or various socio-economic factors determining economic well-being are rarely taken into account. During cyclones, evacuation and relief works are undertaken at the village level, and thus, knowledge of relative vulnerability of the coastal villages is important to the policy makers. The paper studies 262 villages lying within a 10 km of the coast in one of the most cyclone prone districts of India and estimates the probability of expected human fatality due to severe cyclone for these villages. Such probabilities are calculated from a cyclone impact (human deaths) function where a wide range of factors including natural ecosystems are used to control for the exposure and adaptive capacity of the villages. The results show villages established in mangrove habitat areas (after clearing the forest) and those with more marginal workers (without any regular jobs) to face a very high death risk. In contrast, villages situated in the leeward side of existing mangrove forest or near a major river are seen to be facing a much lower risk of deaths. The results have important implications like conserving mangroves in cyclone-prone areas, priority evacuation of villages established in the mangrove habitat before a high-intensity cyclone, etc., for cyclone hazard management. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012