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Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study

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  • Giuliano Di Baldassarre
  • Attilio Castellarin
  • Alberto Montanari
  • Armando Brath

Abstract

The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km 2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Giuliano Di Baldassarre & Attilio Castellarin & Alberto Montanari & Armando Brath, 2009. "Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 479-496, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:50:y:2009:i:3:p:479-496
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9355-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heiko Apel & Annegret Thieken & Bruno Merz & Günter Blöschl, 2006. "A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 79-100, May.
    2. van Manen, Sipke E. & Brinkhuis, Martine, 2005. "Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 229-237.
    3. Jim Hall & Paul Sayers & Richard Dawson, 2005. "National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(1), pages 147-164, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cavalieri, Francesco & Franchin, Paolo & Giovinazzi, Sonia, 2023. "Multi-hazard assessment of increased flooding hazard due to earthquake-induced damage to the natural drainage system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).

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