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Tsunami hazard induced by a submarine landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Author

Listed:
  • I. Ramalho

    (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, IPMA, I. P.
    Instituto Dom Luiz – IDL)

  • R. Omira

    (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, IPMA, I. P.
    Instituto Dom Luiz – IDL)

  • P. Terrinha

    (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, IPMA, I. P.
    Instituto Dom Luiz – IDL)

Abstract

Submarine landslides can be a major source of tsunamis, with waves highly dependent of the properties of both the landslide and the marine domain. This study investigates the tsunamigenesis of a shallow-water submarine landslide, recently mapped at the mouth of the Tagus delta River, off Lisbon, Portugal. The Tagus delta landslide is estimated to be 8 ky old, with a depositional maximum thickness of ~ 20 m and a volume of approximately 0.27 km3, extending over more than 9 km in length and 3 km in width. We assess the tsunamigenic potential and hazard of this possible early Holocene landslide using numerical simulations over high resolution reconstructed paleo-bathymetry, and project a similar future landslide scenario under the present-day conditions. Results show that both paleo- and future landslide scenarios are tsunamigenic, posing a significant hazard to the nearest coasts of Lisbon and surrounding areas. At the source region, the modelled tsunami reached heights of 0.8 m (paleo-scenario) and 1.45 m (future-scenario), increasing to approximately 2 m (both scenarios) as it propagated towards Lisbon’s coastline. This study is a first attempt to address the tsunamigenic potential of a submarine landslide occurring in a shallow water environment of the Portuguese margin domain. The results reinforce the need to include these small, but frequent, events and their induced tsunamis in marine geo-hazard assessments of the region.

Suggested Citation

  • I. Ramalho & R. Omira & P. Terrinha, 2025. "Tsunami hazard induced by a submarine landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(6), pages 6551-6570, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07045-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07045-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carl Harbitz & Finn Løvholt & Hilmar Bungum, 2014. "Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1341-1374, July.
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