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Safe development paradox: evidence and methodological insights from a systematic review

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  • Emanuel Fusinato

    (Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
    Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Sungju Han

    (Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ)

  • Masato Kobiyama

    (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul)

  • Mariana Madruga Brito

    (Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ)

Abstract

Hydrological hazards pose significant threats worldwide, resulting in extensive societal and environmental impacts. To mitigate these impacts, structural protection measures like levees are commonly implemented. However, these measures can overlook complex human-water interactions and cause unintended consequences, such as the safe development paradox (SDP) and its sub-phenomena, the levee effect (LE), where risk reduction efforts paradoxically increase risk in the long run due to a false sense of safety. Despite the growing body of research on the SDP and LE, existing evidence remains fragmented due to the diverse methodologies and variables considered. To address this gap, we systematically reviewed 94 studies spanning 2001–2023 to synthesize the methodological approaches, variables, and evidence in this field. Most of the reviewed studies (75%) provided conclusive evidence to support the occurrence of the SDP and LE via three key mechanisms: (a) increased development in protected areas, (b) reduced preparedness and false sense of safety, and (c) increased damage from rare disaster events. About 40% of the reviewed case studies focused solely on exposure, overlooking other critical dimensions of the SDP and LE, such as vulnerability and behavioral aspects linked to a false sense of safety. Furthermore, the effect of non-structural and individual adaptation measures on the SDP and LE remains underinvestigated. A more holistic assessment of these socio-hydrological phenomena should thus include aspects such as preparedness, vulnerability, and risk perception. This holistic approach would enable a better understanding of the diversity of scenarios where the SDP and LE can manifest, providing policymakers with essential information to prevent unintended consequences of adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Fusinato & Sungju Han & Masato Kobiyama & Mariana Madruga Brito, 2024. "Safe development paradox: evidence and methodological insights from a systematic review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(15), pages 13693-13714, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06774-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06774-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Stevens & Yan Song & Philip Berke, 2010. "New Urbanist developments in flood-prone areas: safe development, or safe development paradox?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(3), pages 605-629, June.
    2. Morgan J. Breen & Abiy S. Kebede & Carola S. König, 2022. "The Safe Development Paradox in Flood Risk Management: A Critical Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
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    4. R. Collenteur & H. Moel & B. Jongman & G. Di Baldassarre, 2015. "The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 373-388, March.
    5. Richert, Claire & Erdlenbruch, Katrin & Grelot, Frédéric, 2019. "The impact of flood management policies on individual adaptation actions: Insights from a French case study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Philipp Babcicky & Sebastian Seebauer, 2019. "Unpacking Protection Motivation Theory: evidence for a separate protective and non-protective route in private flood mitigation behavior," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 1503-1521, December.
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