IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v120y2024i14d10.1007_s11069-024-06722-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic internal erosion analysis in stratified and unstratified foundations of embankment dams using copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Nima Sadeghian

    (University of Guilan)

  • Amir Malekpour Estalaki

    (University of Guilan)

  • Melih Calamak

    (Middle East Technical University)

Abstract

The internal erosion analysis in the foundation of an embankment dam is affected by various sources of uncertainty such as the random soil properties, their correlations and stratified or unstratified conditions at the foundation, which were addressed together in this paper as a novel probabilistic approach. In this regard, the bivariate probabilistic internal erosion analysis was carried out using two correlated soil properties including the representative soil particle size, d70, and hydraulic conductivity, K. The joint probability distributions were obtained for K–d70 pair values using the elliptical and Archimedean copulas and applied to different embankment geometries with stratified and unstratified foundations. According to the results, Archimedean copulas locally lead to higher dependence structure between random variables than elliptical copulas, but T-Student copula from elliptical family globally outperforms other copulas. A stratified foundation also caused an increase in the probability of internal erosion due to preferred seepage flows along the interfaces of soil layers. Finally, the Kolmogorov Smirnov tests showed that, the internal erosion index can be appropriately modeled by the general extreme value method. A polynomial relationship was also obtained for the probability of internal erosion against the dimensionless base length of the embankment in both stratified and unstratified foundations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nima Sadeghian & Amir Malekpour Estalaki & Melih Calamak, 2024. "Probabilistic internal erosion analysis in stratified and unstratified foundations of embankment dams using copulas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(14), pages 12989-13007, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06722-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06722-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06722-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06722-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreini, Marco & Gardoni, Paolo & Pagliara, Stefano & Sassu, Mauro, 2019. "Probabilistic models for the erosion rate in embankments and reliability analysis of earth dams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 142-155.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Reliability analysis & performance-based code calibration for slabs/walls of protective structures subject to air blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    2. Rose, Rodrigo L. & Mugi, Sohan R. & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2023. "Accident investigation and lessons not learned: AcciMap analysis of successive tailings dam collapses in Brazil," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Zhang, Hua & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Yadong & Wang, Te & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2024. "An extended Bayesian network model for calculating dam failure probability based on fuzzy sets and dynamic evidential reasoning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    4. Zoa Ambassa & Jean Chills Amba & Merlin Bodol Momha & Landry Djopkop Kouanang & Robert Nzengwa & Pascal Adrien Mbongo, 2023. "Advanced monitoring and numerical modelling of the stability, safety and reliability indicators of the earthen dam of Songloulou (Cameroon)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-34, October.
    5. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Pei, Liang & Chen, Chen & He, Kun & Lu, Xiang, 2022. "System reliability of a gravity dam-foundation system using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    7. Gangolu, Jaswanth & Kumar, Ajay & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Probabilistic demand models and performance-based fragility estimates for concrete protective structures subjected to missile impact," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    9. Dao, Uyen & Sajid, Zaman & Khan, Faisal & Zhang, Yahui & Tran, Trung, 2023. "Modeling and analysis of internal corrosion induced failure of oil and gas pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Gangolu, Jaswanth & Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2023. "Probabilistic demand models and reliability based code calibration for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    11. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06722-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.