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Assessing managed flood retreat and community relocation in the Midwest USA

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  • Nicholas Pinter

    (University of California
    University of California)

  • James C. Rees

    (University of California)

Abstract

Managed retreat involves the relocation of structures or abandonment of land to manage natural-hazard risk. In the USA, a number of towns have completed or are planning partial or complete relocations. This study focuses on a subset of these towns located in the US Midwest, each relocated out of FEMA designated flood zones to mitigate riverine flooding risk. Past community relocations hold hard-won lessons for future managed retreat projects. Three pragmatic and preliminary metrics were developed here: (1) flood losses avoided, (2) population trends, and (3) trends in home sales prices. Flood-loss modeling shows that community relocation can be cost-effective, reducing economic flood exposure by over 95%. Analysis of population data and residential real-estate sales shows that Midwestern floodplain towns have lagged non- floodplain towns, and homes on mapped floodplains have sold at a discount to non-floodplain homes since at least the early 1990s. Relocation off the floodplain removed the stigma of flooding and quantifiably reenergized those communities. Relocation projects cost more than buyouts without relocation but maintain social bonds and represent a tangible investment in future resilience. Future relocation projects, including retreat from both floodplains and coasts, should draw from the wealth of empirical data and lessons learned from past retreat efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Pinter & James C. Rees, 2021. "Assessing managed flood retreat and community relocation in the Midwest USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 497-518, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04592-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04592-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew L. Dannenberg & Howard Frumkin & Jeremy J. Hess & Kristie L. Ebi, 2019. "Managed retreat as a strategy for climate change adaptation in small communities: public health implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Kanako Iuchi, 2014. "Planning Resettlement After Disasters," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 80(4), pages 413-425, October.
    3. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    4. Chris Eves & Sara Wilkinson, 2014. "Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1519-1536, April.
    5. Miyuki Hino & Christopher B. Field & Katharine J. Mach, 2017. "Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 364-370, May.
    6. Philipp Babcicky & Sebastian Seebauer, 2017. "The two faces of social capital in private flood mitigation: opposing effects on risk perception, self-efficacy and coping capacity," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 1017-1037, August.
    7. Nicholas Pinter & Mikio Ishiwateri & Atsuko Nonoguchi & Yumiko Tanaka & David Casagrande & Susan Durden & James Rees, 2019. "Large-scale managed retreat and structural protection following the 2011 Japan tsunami," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1429-1436, April.
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    1. A. R. Siders & Idowu Ajibade, 2021. "Introduction: Managed retreat and environmental justice in a changing climate," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 287-293, September.
    2. Sefa Mızrak & Melikşah Turan, 2023. "Effect of individual characteristics, risk perception, self-efficacy and social support on willingness to relocate due to floods and landslides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1615-1637, March.

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