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Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Shahzada Adnan

    (COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI)
    Pakistan Meteorological Department)

  • Kalim Ullah

    (COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI))

Abstract

Drought is a silent meteorological disaster that spreads over time, affecting water availability for agriculture and livelihood in any region. The prediction of drought is a complex phenomenon; however, the negative impacts of drought are mitigated by monitoring drought events over a region. The present study provides spatial and temporal drought climatology over Pakistan, using 60-years (1951–2010) observational gridded data (0.5° × 0.5°) of precipitation from Global Precipitation Climatological Center and soil moisture from Climate Prediction Center. Using precipitation and soil moisture datasets, a novel drought hazard index is developed to determine drought vulnerability across different districts of Pakistan. Our findings identified 19 districts that are extremely vulnerable to drought, with northern regions being vulnerable to mild drought, whereas central and southern districts are vulnerable to high drought events. By using standardized precipitation index and soil moisture anomaly, six severe drought years were identified as 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000, 2001, and 2002 in different parts of the country. Deficiency of monsoon rainfall is a major cause of droughts in southern and rain-fed regions. This study is helpful for drought managers, hydrologists, and contingency planners to prepare mitigation and adaptation plans toward sustainable development in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahzada Adnan & Kalim Ullah, 2020. "Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2989-3010, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04116-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04116-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aiguo Dai, 2011. "Drought under global warming: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 45-65, January.
    2. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    3. Yuk Feng Huang & Ali Najah Ahmed & Jing Lin Ng & Kok Weng Tan & Pavitra Kumar & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2022. "Rainfall Variability Index (RVI) analysis of dry spells in Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1423-1475, June.
    4. Anwar Hussain & Khan Zaib Jadoon & Khalil Ur Rahman & Songhao Shang & Muhammad Shahid & Nuaman Ejaz & Himayatullah Khan, 2023. "Analyzing the impact of drought on agriculture: evidence from Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 389-408, January.
    5. Yang, Beibei & Cui, Qian & Meng, Yizhuo & Zhang, Zhen & Hong, Zhiming & Hu, Fengmin & Li, Junjie & Tao, Chongxin & Wang, Zhe & Zhang, Wen, 2023. "Combined multivariate drought index for drought assessment in China from 2003 to 2020," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    6. Salman Atif & Muhammad Umar & Fahim Ullah, 2021. "Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2357-2383, September.
    7. Adil Dilawar & Baozhang Chen & Arfan Arshad & Lifeng Guo & Muhammad Irfan Ehsan & Yawar Hussain & Alphonse Kayiranga & Simon Measho & Huifang Zhang & Fei Wang & Xiaohong Sun & Mengyu Ge, 2021. "Towards Understanding Variability in Droughts in Response to Extreme Climate Conditions over the Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-28, June.

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