Locus of control over global mine production– developments between 1985 and 2018 against a historical background

It is a well-known fact that mine production has shifted from the industrialised countries of Europe, North America and Japan to emerging economies in Latin America, Africa and Asia and to Australia since the mid-20th century. The lack of self-sufficiency or high import dependence, in particular of the so-called critical metals, has become an issue of great political concern in these industrialised countries over the past 15 years. This study of six metals, cobalt, copper, iron ore, lithium, manganese and rare earths, contrasts this picture of geographical location of production with an analysis of where the control over mine production around the world is based, which we call the locus of control. Production might have moved out of the industrialised countries but control over production by companies based in the industrialised countries remains and has even increased between 1985 and 2018. We measure control as share of the total value of the production of the six metals. European transnational mining companies have increased their control from 14 to 18% while mining companies based in North America have lost control, a decline from 13 to 8%. When Australian companies, that have more than tripled their control in the same period, are added, control by the industrialised countries has increased to 44% of these six metals. Companies based in Latin America, Africa and Asia excluding China, taken together have maintained their control level, roughly a third of the total value of the six metals. Inside this group of countries African share has dwindled from 12 to 3% while Asian companies have more than doubled their share from 5 to 12%. Control by mining companies based in the republics of the former Soviet Union have been reduced from 25 to 7% while in the same period Chinese companies’ control has doubled from 6 to 12% of the total value of these six metals. Countries in Asia (excluding China) together with Latin American and African countries produce 51% of these six metals measured by the value at the mine stage. However, companies based in these countries control not more than 33% of the production.