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Social elites as sentinels: estimating national excess mortality of China’s sudden COVID-19 reopening

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  • Guojun He

    (University of Hong Kong)

  • Shuo Li

    (University of Hong Kong
    Fudan University)

  • Yucheng Quan

    (University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

China’s sudden Lifting of zero-COVID controls in December 2022 triggered a nationwide mortality surge. Using verifiable death records of social elites, such as academicians and key political figures, we estimate a conservative lower bound on excess mortality during the exit wave. We find that elite weekly mortality rates rose 5–tenfold in the weeks following the reopening, implying at least 1.44 million excess deaths nationally. Nevertheless, further analysis reveals that China’s total mortality cost during the entire pandemic remains low relative to comparable countries, as COVID-19 was largely under control from 2020 to 2022. The deaths of social elites highlight the pandemic’s reach across all societal strata and have far-reaching impacts on society. Using academia as an example, we demonstrate that while the deaths of academicians result in significant losses of valuable expertise, those deaths enhance academic upward mobility and accelerate generational turnover. Our findings underscore the need for better preparedness in future public health emergencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojun He & Shuo Li & Yucheng Quan, 2025. "Social elites as sentinels: estimating national excess mortality of China’s sudden COVID-19 reopening," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:38:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s00148-025-01122-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-025-01122-2
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    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • P46 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

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