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Shrinking Kin Networks in Italy Due to Sustained Low Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia Tomassini

    (King's College)

  • Douglas A. Wolf

    (King's College
    Syracuse University)

Abstract

Among the closely watched demographic trends of thelate 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertilityrates throughout much of the world. Italy presents aparticularly interesting case for study: in 1960,Italy's TFR was 2.41, whereas by 1995 it had fallen to1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050Italy will be the second oldest country in the world,with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older per person under 15years of age. Besides overall population ageing,another implication of sustained low fertility issmaller families and kin groups. We investigate theconsequences of projected changes in Italy's birth anddeath rates on the composition of kin groups usingmicrosimulation techniques. Using a startingpopulation taken from the 1994 ``Indagine Multiscoposulle Famiglie'' survey, and projected rates ofmortality and fertility by age and parity produced bythe Italian Institute of Statistics, we simulate thepath of kin-group patterns in Italy during the period1994–2050. While we reproduce the aggregate populationpatterns found in official projections, we conduct ourestimates at the ``micro'' level, keeping track of therelationships between individuals that underlie kingroup patterns. We show the effects of the demographictrends on the existence of daughters and sons forolder mothers, on the number of sisters and brotherswith whom an adult woman could share theresponsibilities of caring an elderly mother, and theeffect of the joint action of the increase inlongevity and the mean age at fertility on theproportion of adult women with a living mother.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Tomassini & Douglas A. Wolf, 2000. "Shrinking Kin Networks in Italy Due to Sustained Low Fertility," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 353-372, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:16:y:2000:i:4:d:10.1023_a:1006408331594
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1006408331594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Barrett, 1971. "Use of a fertility simulation model to refine measurement techniques," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 8(4), pages 481-490, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2019. "Simulating Family Life Courses: An Application for Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia," VID Working Papers 1908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Sha Jiang & Wenyun Zuo & Zhen Guo & Hal Caswell & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2023. "How does the demographic transition affect kinship networks?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(32), pages 899-930.
    3. Jessica Zamberletti & Giulia Cavrini & Cecilia Tomassini, 2018. "Grandparents providing childcare in Italy," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 265-275, September.
    4. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2003. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(1), pages 1-48.
    6. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2004. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(10), pages 263-304.
    7. Donald Cox & Beth J. Soldo, 2004. "Motivation for Money and Care that Adult Children Provide for Parents: Evidence from "Point-Blank" Survey Questions," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-17, Center for Retirement Research.

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