IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envsyd/v45y2025i1d10.1007_s10669-025-10002-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of high-potential tsunami occurrences across the globe

Author

Listed:
  • Soham Biswas

    (NIT Silchar)

  • Arjun Sil

    (NIT Silchar)

Abstract

This study proposes a stochastic approach to assess the future tsunami potential globally, focusing on the inter-arrival time of tsunami events in the 14 most active tsunamigenic zones. Two methods, conditional probability (CP) and the total probability theorem (TPT), were employed to estimate tsunami potential. For CP, the occurrence of a tsunami over time was determined by selecting the best-fit stochastic model (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull, or log-logistic distributions) based on the time of the last earthquake in each zone. In contrast, TPT calculated the probability as the product of the tsunami-to-earthquake ratio ‘r’ and the CP of the time zone [P (E)]. However, direct comparison between the probabilities obtained by the two methods proved challenging due to the maximum value ‘r’ can attain for a region in TPT. In contrast, CP values may extend to 1 over a longer period. The study evaluates the probability of future tsunami occurrences under two conditions: mixed tsunamis (any wave height) and tsunamis with wave heights exceeding 3 m. Zones with higher likelihoods of tsunami occurrences for both scenarios are identified and highlighted. The obtained probabilities were validated against respective zone threshold probabilities. Additionally, TPT-derived probabilities for tsunamis under mixed conditions reveal higher likelihoods in Zone 1 (Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil), succeeded by Zone 7 (Japan, China, North Korea), and Zone 11 (Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia). Conversely, the probability of tsunamis with wave heights exceeding 3 m is higher in Zone 3 (Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti), followed by Zone 9 (Malaysia, Brunei, Australia), and Zone 1 (Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil). These variations stem primarily from spatial changes in the global tsunami-to-earthquake ratio across distributed zones. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of future tsunami potential, aiding decision-makers and planners in taking informed actions to mitigate potential risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Soham Biswas & Arjun Sil, 2025. "Forecasting of high-potential tsunami occurrences across the globe," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:45:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-025-10002-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-025-10002-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-025-10002-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10669-025-10002-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Geist & Tom Parsons, 2006. "Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 37(3), pages 277-314, March.
    2. Arjun Sil & T. Sitharam & Sreevalsa Kolathayar, 2013. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Tripura and Mizoram states," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 1089-1108, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Heidarzadeh & Moharram Pirooz & Nasser Zaker & Ahmet Yalciner, 2009. "Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(2), pages 229-243, February.
    2. Mohammad Heidarzadeh & Andrzej Kijko, 2011. "A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 577-593, March.
    3. Jin‐Feng Wang & Lian‐Fa Li, 2008. "Improving Tsunami Warning Systems with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Input," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1653-1668, December.
    4. Ignacio Barranco & Vicente Gracia & Joan Pau Sierra & Hector Perea & Xavier Gironella, 2017. "Tsunami hazards in the Catalan Coast, a low-intensity seismic activity area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1273-1295, September.
    5. Byung-Ho Kim & Min-Jong Song & Yong-Sik Cho, 2022. "Safety Analysis of a Nuclear Power Plant against Unexpected Tsunamis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-20, October.
    6. Anita Grezio & Warner Marzocchi & Laura Sandri & Paolo Gasparini, 2010. "A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(1), pages 159-174, April.
    7. Andrea Cerase & Lorenzo Cugliari, 2023. "Something Still Remains: Factors Affecting Tsunami Risk Perception on the Coasts Hit by the Reggio Calabria-Messina 1908 Event (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, February.
    8. Marilym Ramos & Rafael Aránguiz & María Teresa Bull, 2025. "Tsunami inundation limit based on probabilistic analysis of runup and inundation distance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 2719-2745, February.
    9. Madan Mohan Rout & Josodhir Das & Kamal, 2018. "Probabilistic seismic hazard for Himalayan region using kernel estimation method (zone-free method)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 967-985, September.
    10. Avik Paul & Suvam Gupta & Sima Ghosh & Deepankar Choudhury, 2020. "Probabilistic assessment and study of earthquake recurrence models for entire Northeast region of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 15-45, May.
    11. J. Wijetunge, 2010. "Numerical simulation and field survey of inundation due to 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Trincomalee, Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(1), pages 177-192, July.
    12. Hyoungsu Park & Daniel T. Cox & Andre R. Barbosa, 2018. "Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for resilience assessment of a coastal community," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1117-1139, December.
    13. Eric Geist & Uri Brink & Matthew Gove, 2014. "A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(1), pages 123-142, October.
    14. Amin Rashidi & Zaher Hossein Shomali & Denys Dutykh & Nasser Keshavarz Farajkhah, 2020. "Tsunami hazard assessment in the Makran subduction zone," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 861-875, January.
    15. Md. Zillur Rahman & Sumi Siddiqua & A. S. M. Maksud Kamal, 2020. "Seismic source modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2489-2532, September.
    16. David Burbidge & Phil Cummins, 2007. "Assessing the threat to Western Australia from tsunami generated by earthquakes along the Sunda Arc," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 43(3), pages 319-331, December.
    17. Sascha Brune & Stefan Ladage & Andrey Babeyko & Christian Müller & Heidrun Kopp & Stephan Sobolev, 2010. "Submarine landslides at the eastern Sunda margin: observations and tsunami impact assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(2), pages 547-562, August.
    18. Carl Harbitz & Finn Løvholt & Hilmar Bungum, 2014. "Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1341-1374, July.
    19. Sreevalsa Kolathayar, 2021. "Recent seismicity in Delhi and population exposure to seismic hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2621-2648, December.
    20. Lucinda Leonard & Garry Rogers & Stéphane Mazzotti, 2014. "Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 237-274, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:45:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-025-10002-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.