Toward potential area identification for land consolidation and ecological restoration: an integrated framework via land use optimization

Area identification is an important prerequisite for land consolidation and ecological restoration (LCER); the realization of an optimized land use pattern is the key link of land use optimization. This study meets the dual requirements by establishing an identification framework for potential LCER areas. The framework is applied to the Yellow River Basin with the help of the multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model and patch-generating land use simulating (PLUS) model, which effectively connects the “ideal” land use pattern with the “practical” LCER. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The land development probability of the basin shows a significant spatial differentiation. Precipitation significantly restricts the development of agricultural and ecological lands, and the population is the key factor affecting the construction land. (2) The construction land sprawl, cropland loss, and grassland reduction would be effectively controlled in the optimized land use pattern, with the forestland and water increasing and the unused land area decreasing. (3) The framework of “land expansion analysis-land use optimization-potential area identification” is established and used to identify LCER areas, including four conversion areas of cropland development, cropland retirement, ecological reconstruction, ecological readjustment, and four non-conversion areas of cropland improvement, ecological conservation, and reserve resource area (I,II). Conversion areas require more LCER interventions than non-conversion areas. The spread of construction land could lead to severe losses of grassland and cropland under the natural development scenario. Land use optimization effectively protects cropland and ecological land, based on which identifying LCER areas and adapting differentiated measures contribute to implementing such conservation while improving the basin’s economic and ecological benefits. The identification framework provides flexible method guidance for determining the LCER areas, and offers a reference path for realizing optimized land use structure and pattern.