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Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Erika Coppola

  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Francesca Raffaele
  • Ramon Fuentes-Franco
  • Graziano Giuliani
  • Marta LLopart-Pereira
  • Ashu Mamgain
  • Laura Mariotti
  • Gulilat Diro
  • Csaba Torma

Abstract

We provide an overall assessment of the surface air temperature and precipitation present day (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) ensemble climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. This consists of simulations performed with different configurations (physics schemes) of the ICTP regional model RegCM4 over five CORDEX domains (Africa, Mediterranean, Central America, South America, South Asia), driven by different combinations of three global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The biases (1976–2005) in the driving and nested model ensembles compared to observations show a high degree of spatial variability and, when comparing GCMs and RegCM4, similar magnitudes and more similarity for precipitation than for temperature. The large scale patterns of change (2070–2099 minus 1976–2005) are broadly consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles and with previous analyses of GCM projections, indicating that the GCMs selected in the CREMA experiment are representative of the more general behavior of current GCMs. The RegCM4, however, shows a lower climate sensitivity (reduced warming) than the driving GCMs, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. While the broad patterns of precipitation change are consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles, greater differences are found at sub-regional scales over the various domains, evidently tied to the representation of local processes. This paper serves to provide a reference view of the behavior of the CREMA ensemble, while more detailed and process-based analysis of individual domains is left to companion papers of this special issue. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi & Francesca Raffaele & Ramon Fuentes-Franco & Graziano Giuliani & Marta LLopart-Pereira & Ashu Mamgain & Laura Mariotti & Gulilat Diro & Csaba Torma, 2014. "Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 23-38, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:23-38
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1137-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fredrik Boberg & Jens H. Christensen, 2012. "Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 433-436, June.
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    1. Nazan An & Mustafa Tufan Turp & Murat Türkeş & Mehmet Levent Kurnaz, 2020. "Mid-Term Impact of Climate Change on Hazelnut Yield," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi & Rosmeri Rocha & Santiago Cuadra, 2014. "Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 111-125, July.
    3. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.

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