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Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model

Author

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  • Gordon F. Mulligan

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  • Andreas Molin

    ()

Abstract

Shift-share analysis is an accounting procedure that identifies three separate effects for regional employment change. But the analysis is ordinarily restricted to only one category: usually, industry employment. This paper presents a new shift-share model that simultaneously addresses both occupation employment and industry employment. Community-level occupation-in-industry employment effects (both mix and competitive) occurring in the 1980s are then used to estimate population change in the 1990s. Separate estimates are given for two data sets comprised of different-sized non-metropolitan U.S. communities – small towns and micropolitan centers. This expanded two-category model is shown to generate estimates that are clearly superior to those of the traditional one-category model. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon F. Mulligan & Andreas Molin, 2004. "Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 38(1), pages 113-130, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:38:y:2004:i:1:p:113-130
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-003-0139-8
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00168-003-0139-8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. IORDAN Marioara & GRIGORESCU Adriana & CHILIAN Mihaela-Nona, 2013. "Sub-Regional Disparities In Romania - The Case Of The Centru Region," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 102-117.
    2. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
    3. Mihaela-Nona Chilian, 2011. "Evolution of Regional Disparities in Romania – A Shift-share Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p827, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Chilian, Mihaela Nona, 2012. "Evolution of Regional and Sub-Regional Disparities in Romania – A Sectoral Shift-Share Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 187-204, March.
    5. Kingsley E. Haynes & Jitendra Parajuli, 2014. "Shift-share analysis: decomposition of spatially integrated systems," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Spatially Integrated Social Science, chapter 16, pages 315-344 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    R11; R12;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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