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Skutki podniesienia kwoty wolnej od podatku od dochodów osobistych

Author

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  • Iwo Augustyński

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest analiza skutków ekonomicznych obniżenia podatku PIT poprzez zwiększenie kwoty wolnej od podatku do poziomu dwunastokrotności minimum egzystencji w jednoosobowym gospodarstwie pracowniczym. Skutki te mogą być trojakie. Po pierwsze, taka reforma powoduje zmniejszenie dochodów państwa z tytułu podatku PIT. Po drugie, zwiększają się dochody państwa z tytułu podatku VAT. Po trzecie, rosnąca konsumpcja zwiększa produkcję krajową, a co za tym idzie zwiększa całkowite dochody budżetowe, co może obniżyć relację długu publicznego do PKB. Krótkookresowej analizy dwóch pierwszych efektów dokonano wykorzystując obliczenia realnej wielkości podatku VAT oraz liczby płatników i poziomu dochodów budżetowych z tytułu podatku PIT. Do oszacowania trzeciego efektu wykorzystano postkeynesowski model makroekonomiczny typu SFC (Stock-Flow Consistent model). Wyniki badań wskazują, iż krótkookresowe skutki reformy powodują zmniejszenie dochodów budżetowych o ok. 3,1% zwiększając deficyt budżetowy o 19,1% (dane za 2013 r.). W dłuższym okresie natomiast, zwiększenie kwoty wolnej od podatku spowodowałoby wzrost konsumpcji i oszczędności, a w rezultacie przyczyniłoby się do wzrostu PKB. Zwiększyłyby się również dochody ludności dzięki efektom mnożnikowym. Wzrósłby co prawda deficyt budżetowy, ale relacja długu publicznego do PKB byłaby malejąca. Proponowane zmiany nie tworzą więc ryzyka przekroczenia progów konstytucyjnych tego wskaźnika, co mogłaby sugerować analiza krótkookresowa.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwo Augustyński, 2016. "Skutki podniesienia kwoty wolnej od podatku od dochodów osobistych," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 55-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2016:i:1:p:55-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) Model," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marc Lavoie & Gennaro Zezza (ed.), The Stock-Flow Consistent Approach, chapter 9, pages 194-215, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    modele SFC; dług publiczny; kwota wolna od podatku; podatek dochodowy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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