Speculative urban infrastructure in the context of Chinese engagement in Africa

Focusing on speculative urban infrastructure within the context of China–Africa cooperation, the paper investigates the nexus of state-driven infrastructural ambitions, the inherent complexities of project implementation and the varied ways social actors engage with and influence these processes. Through a comparative tracing of three public urban projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, it examines how Chinese diplomatic, financial and economic expansion has fuelled the Ethiopian government’s urban development aspirations, creating pathways for governments, companies and citizens from both countries to engage in diverse speculative ventures. These projects reveal the entanglements of competing interests, tensions and power dynamics across the stages of envisioning, delivering and the everyday experience of urban infrastructure. Findings suggest that in rapidly urbanising cities like Addis Ababa – where resources are limited – prioritising speculative projects often diverts attention from essential and immediate urban needs. The inherent fragility of such projects – marked by high debt burdens, displacement and uncertain economic returns – amplifies the risk of infrastructural failure, raising critical questions about whose interests should guide urban development and how speculative visions align with local demands. This paper argues that transnaitonal engagements through urban speculative infrastructure act both as catalysts for and sources of contestation in urban transformation, which necessitates critical rethinking of government programmes and urban planning approaches to better accommodate multiple aspirations and promote more equitable outcomes.