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Use of a Catalytic Model to Estimate Hepatitis A Incidence in a Low-Endemicity Country

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Listed:
  • Ba’ Pham
  • Maggie Hong Chen
  • Andrea C. Tricco
  • Andrea Anonychuk
  • Murray Krahn
  • Chris T. Bauch

Abstract

Background . Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccine programs with dynamic modeling requires accurate estimates of incidence over time. Because infectious diseases are often underreported, supplementary data and statistical analyses are required to estimate true incidence. This study estimates the true incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in Canada using a catalytic model. Methods . A catalytic model was used to reconcile HAV seroprevalence data with the corresponding true cumulative risk of infection estimated from incidence data. Results . The average annual reported incidence was 6.2 cases per 100 000 from 1980 to 1989 and 7.7/100 000 from 1990 to 1999, indicating that Canada is a low-incidence country. The seroprevalence in Canadian-born individuals (n = 7 studies) was approximately 1%−8% in ages

Suggested Citation

  • Ba’ Pham & Maggie Hong Chen & Andrea C. Tricco & Andrea Anonychuk & Murray Krahn & Chris T. Bauch, 2012. "Use of a Catalytic Model to Estimate Hepatitis A Incidence in a Low-Endemicity Country," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(1), pages 167-175, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:32:y:2012:i:1:p:167-175
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X11398489
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. A. Griffiths, 1974. "A Catalytic Model of Infection for Measles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 23(3), pages 330-339, November.
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