Civil War in the Post-Colonial World, 1946-92

In this article, we provide a systematic analysis of the extent to which political, economic, and cultural factors are associated with civil wars in the post-colonial states of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Results of logistic regression analyses corroborate previous findings that semi-democracy is associated with an increased likelihood of civil war, while greater economic development reduces the probability of civil war. We also found that militarized post-colonial states are more likely to experience civil war, as are Asian — more than Middle Eastern and African — states. Among the political, economic, and cultural factors, semi-democracy has the greatest impact on the probability of civil war, which suggests the greater role of political — more than economic or cultural — factors in post-colonial civil wars. All told, the findings suggest that a multifaceted strategy of full democratization, demilitarization, and development is required to reduce the likelihood of civil war in post-colonial states.