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Excessive Force or Armored Restraint? Government Mechanization and Civilian Casualties in Civil Conflict

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  • Ryan Van Wie
  • Jacob Walden

Abstract

Does increasing counterinsurgent mechanization result in higher levels of unintentional civilian casualties? Existing research on unintentional civilian victimization in recent conflicts has focused on air strikes, but this question remains unexplored in research examining counterinsurgent force structure for ground units. However, a host of counterinsurgency practitioners in Iraq have cited the mechanized forces’ effectiveness in delivering precision fires that limit civilian casualties. We propose an armored restraint theory, suggesting that mechanized crews’ armored protection enhances soldiers’ decision space when making the consequential choice to employ lethal force. When this enhanced decision space is combined with units that systematically respect jus in bello principles and non-combatant immunity norms, it results in armored restraint, which may reduce government-caused civilian casualties in civil conflicts. We test this theory using micro-data from Iraq and find mechanized units are associated with significantly lower civilian casualty levels compared to dismounted units.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Van Wie & Jacob Walden, 2023. "Excessive Force or Armored Restraint? Government Mechanization and Civilian Casualties in Civil Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(10), pages 2058-2084, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:10:p:2058-2084
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027231154446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryan C. Van Wie & Jacob A. Walden, 2022. "Troops or Tanks? Rethinking COIN mechanization and force employment," Small Wars and Insurgencies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 1032-1058, August.
    2. Lisa Hultman, 2012. "Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 164-181, April.
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