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Flexibility and Firmness in Crisis Bargaining

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  • Vesna Danilovic
  • Joe Clare

Abstract

Our study compares the efficacy of mixed bargaining strategies to strict coercion or accommodation. While mixed strategies can be approached from different conceptual angles, we focus on flexible and/or firm postures as signaling properties of bargaining. In our theory and empirical analysis, we show that the combination of firmness with flexibility on both sides, without necessarily scripted rules as in tit-for-tat, leads to peaceful resolution without unilateral concessions. Its opposite, resolute firmness is unlikely to make the opponent yield, as assumed in influential literature of the traditional canon. If anything, war is most likely when both sides opt for it. We provide the theoretical rationale for these expectations, which are validated in our empirical analysis of the ICB crisis dataset for the 1918 to 2015 period. Our study also points to the bargaining process as a potential causal mechanism between democracy and peace, and therefore has relevant implications for several research strands.

Suggested Citation

  • Vesna Danilovic & Joe Clare, 2021. "Flexibility and Firmness in Crisis Bargaining," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(6), pages 1039-1066, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:6:p:1039-1066
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002721994174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Häge, Frank M., 2011. "Choice or Circumstance? Adjusting Measures of Foreign Policy Similarity for Chance Agreement," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 287-305, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vesna Danilovic & Joe Clare, 2023. "Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(6), pages 634-654, November.

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