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Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process

Author

Listed:
  • Vesna Danilovic

    (Department of Political Science, 12292University at Buffalo-SUNY, USA)

  • Joe Clare

    (Department of Political Science, Louisiana State University, USA)

Abstract

We examine whether bargaining behavior alters the initially expected effects of exogenous factors, such as power balance, issues, and domestic regimes, influencing crisis outcomes. Our argument is that, instead of weakening threat credibility as assumed in the traditional advocacy for firmness, mixing coercion with accommodation optimally allows states to reach an outcome within the bargaining range shaped by exogenous factors. After establishing causal mechanisms, we test our hypotheses over the 1918−2015 period. The findings validate our expectations that intransigence exacerbates crisis stability even under favorable exogenous conditions whereas mixed bargaining mitigates the effects of unfavorable ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Vesna Danilovic & Joe Clare, 2023. "Exogenous factors and the crisis bargaining process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(6), pages 634-654, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:40:y:2023:i:6:p:634-654
    DOI: 10.1177/07388942231153332
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