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Introspection, Deduction, and Guesswork in Policy Evaluation

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  • Stuart S. Nagel

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

There is a need for more use of introspection, deduction, and guesswork in policy/pro gram evaluation to supplement the possible overemphasis on statistical/behavioral analysis. Introspective interviewing of knowledgeable insiders can often determine the magnitude of relations more meaningfully than statistical analysis can in view of reciprocal causation, spurious causation, multicollinearity, and other confounding factors. Deduction from empirically validated premises avoids the problem of lack of an experimental group, a control group, after-data, before-data, bureaucratic inertia, and damages from experimenting. Guesswork can be combined with sensitivity analysis to determine the effects of guesses and missing information on bottom-line conclusions where statistical analysis, introspective authority, or deduction is questionable.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart S. Nagel, 1984. "Introspection, Deduction, and Guesswork in Policy Evaluation," Evaluation Review, , vol. 8(3), pages 413-424, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:8:y:1984:i:3:p:413-424
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8400800307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stuart S. Nagel, 1984. "Public Policy Goals, Means, and Methods," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 3(2), pages 192-192, February.
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