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Radical uncertainty: scenario planning for futures

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  • Marisa A Zapata
  • Nikhil Kaza

Abstract

The use of scenario planning in urban and regional planning practice has grown in the last decade as one way to face uncertainty. However, in adapting scenario planning from its origins in the business sector, planners have eliminated two key components: (1) the use of multiple scenarios, and (2) the inclusion of diverse organizations, people, and interests through deep deliberations. We argue that this shift limits the ability of planners to plan for multiple plausible futures that are shaped by an increasing number of diverse actors. In this paper, we use case-study research to examine how uncertainty was considered in four scenario-planning processes. We analyzed and compared the cases based on analytical categories related to multiple futures and diversity. We found that the processes that used multiple, structurally distinct scenarios explored a wider range of topics and issues shaping places. All four relied heavily on professional stakeholders as the scenario developers, limiting public input. Only one of the processes that included multiple futures captured the differential effects that scenarios would have on diverse people and interests. Overall, the purpose of the scenario planning drove the participant diversity and ultimately the quality and use of the scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Marisa A Zapata & Nikhil Kaza, 2015. "Radical uncertainty: scenario planning for futures," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(4), pages 754-770, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:42:y:2015:i:4:p:754-770
    DOI: 10.1068/b39059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marisa A. Zapata, 2013. "Five years later: how California community members acted on transformative learning achieved in a participatory planning process," Planning Theory & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 373-387, September.
    2. Arnab Chakraborty & Nikhil Kaza & Gerrit-Jan Knaap & Brian Deal, 2011. "Robust Plans and Contingent Plans," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(3), pages 251-266.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atsede D. Tegegne & Marianne Penker & Maria Wurzinger, 2016. "Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 277-296, June.

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