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Regional Variations in Voting at British General Elections, 1950–2001: Group-Based Latent Trajectory Analysis

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  • Ron Johnston
  • Kelvyn Jones
  • Min-Hua Jen

    (Department of Primary Care and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Reynolds Building, St Dunstan's Road, London W6 8RP, England)

Abstract

Little work has been done on long-term trends in support for British political parties because of the absence of comparable data over more than four elections. Using a dataset of estimated vote percentages for each party over fifteen elections for a constant set of 641 ‘pseudo-constituencies' (based on those used for the 1997 and 2001 general elections) this paper uses a recently developed inductive procedure for identifying spatially varying temporal trends to identify variations in party support since 1950, enabling hypotheses regarding their nature to be formally tested. Whereas varying trends in Conservative support were predominantly regional—supporting the concept of a north–south divide—there was greater variation by functional type than geographical region in the patterning of support trends for the other two parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Johnston & Kelvyn Jones & Min-Hua Jen, 2009. "Regional Variations in Voting at British General Elections, 1950–2001: Group-Based Latent Trajectory Analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(3), pages 598-616, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:41:y:2009:i:3:p:598-616
    DOI: 10.1068/a40231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Curtice, John & Steed, Michael, 1982. "Electoral Choice and the Production of Government: The Changing Operation of the Electoral System in the United Kingdom since 1955," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 249-298, July.
    2. Miller, W. L., 1978. "Social Class and Party Choice in England: A New Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 257-284, July.
    3. Crewe, Ivor & Payne, Clive, 1976. "Another Game with Nature: An Ecological Regression Model of the British Two-Party Vote Ratio in 1970," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 43-81, January.
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