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Watershed Land-Use Planning under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • I C Goulter

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada)

  • H G Wenzel Jr

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801, USA)

  • L D Hopkins

    (Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801, USA)

Abstract

A model of watershed land-use planning is formulated that improves on existing models by recognizing that land-use decisions have uncertain outcomes and that land uses change over time. Implications of recognizing the distinction between land-use decisions and their uncertain outcomes are discussed. The land-use changes are modelled using a Markov process. Because of the computational difficulties in determining the return associated with the complete range of possible decision sets, a heuristic technique is required. A heuristic search procedure based on stochastic dynamic programming is described.

Suggested Citation

  • I C Goulter & H G Wenzel Jr & L D Hopkins, 1983. "Watershed Land-Use Planning under Uncertainty," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(7), pages 987-992, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:15:y:1983:i:7:p:987-992
    DOI: 10.1068/a150987
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bell, Earl J., 1974. "Markov analysis of land use change--an application of stochastic processes to remotely sensed data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 311-316, December.
    2. L. S. Bourne, 1978. "ON THE COMPLEXITY OF URBAN LAND USE CHANGE: or, What Theoretical Models Leave in the Dust," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 75-100, January.
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