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Weather Effects in Energy Seasonal Adjustment: An Application to France Energy Consumption

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  • Marie Bruguet
  • Arthur Thomas
  • Ronan Le Saout

Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of adjusting energy consumption data for weather variations by introducing a novel General Weather Indicator (GWI). The GWI combines multiple weather variables, including temperature, wind, sunlight, rain, and cloudiness, using a novel econometric approach that applies K-means for threshold identification and LASSO for variable selection. Through an empirical analysis of sectoral electricity and natural gas consumption in France, we demonstrate that the GWI outperforms the standard HDD approach by addressing three main concerns: the lack of statistical criteria for defining the base temperature, the reliance solely on temperature as the weather variable, and the assumption of a constant base temperature over time and space. Based on these results, we propose an analysis of the sectoral functional form and an estimation of weather elasticities for energy demand in France at both the monthly and daily levels. JEL Classification: C32, E61, P28, Q47

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Bruguet & Arthur Thomas & Ronan Le Saout, 2025. "Weather Effects in Energy Seasonal Adjustment: An Application to France Energy Consumption," The Energy Journal, , vol. 46(5), pages 113-144, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:46:y:2025:i:5:p:113-144
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574251330845
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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