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How Do We Study “What Happens Next†?

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen W. Raudenbush

    (Department of Sociology and the College, University of Chicago.)

Abstract

Applications of group trajectory modeling summarize individual histories in a language that is broadly accessible to clinicians. This strength depends on the belief that a population consists, at least roughly, of a small number of subgroups whose members display similar records of behavior. In this view, the purpose of longitudinal research is to reveal the unfolding of essential differences between groups. The author offers an alternative view, in which historical records of personal behavior reflect a continuous interplay between individual action and environmental intervention. This interplay generates, for each participant, a myriad of potential trajectories. Rather than smoothing over this complexity with a small number of trajectory classes, the author proposes models that allow personal and environmental contributions to generate appropriate developmental complexity. The author illustrates this alternative approach using two examples: children's learning during the elementary years and effects of age and history on violent offending.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen W. Raudenbush, 2005. "How Do We Study “What Happens Next†?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 602(1), pages 131-144, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:602:y:2005:i:1:p:131-144
    DOI: 10.1177/0002716205280900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel S. Nagin & Richard E. Tremblay, 2005. "What Has Been Learned from Group-Based Trajectory Modeling? Examples from Physical Aggression and Other Problem Behaviors," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 602(1), pages 82-117, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel S. Nagin & Richard E. Tremblay, 2005. "Further Reflections on Modeling and Analyzing Developmental Trajectories: A Response to Maughan and Raudenbush," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 602(1), pages 145-154, November.

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