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Factors of Growth of Tax Revenues: A Macroeconomic Approach


  • Mishustin, Michael V.

    () (Federal Tax Service)


Understanding the nature of key macroeconomic indicators and their behavior depending on the overall geo-economic background is decisive in the analysis and forecasting of tax revenues. This makes it necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the factors determinig budget-forming tax revenues. The analysis of the tax revenues includes socio-economic, legal and tax administration factors. These factors have a differential impact on each budget-forming tax — profit tax, value added tax (VAT), mineral extraction tax (MET), personal income tax, excise taxes. The overall negative dynamics of revenues to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation developed as a result of a serious reduction of MET, which confirms the strong resource dependence of the Russian economy. An ambiguous effect on the profit tax had the overall growth of the price level, the dynamics of industrial production and foreign trade and the ruble exchange rate. The increase in VAT revenues was achieved as a result of cumulative effects of inflation growth and increasing trade turnover in real terms. The decisive economic factor in the dynamics of such type of tax revenues as the excises is the consumer activity, but a major effect on its dynamics had a change in tax rates on excisable goods. Stable growth of tax revenues contributes to the Federal Tax Service of Russia measures aimed at combating the use of unfair methods of competition through the use of legislative gaps for tax evasion. FTS radically changed the approaches to the control procedures to reduce the interaction conflicts with taxpayers. In order to implement and improve the conciliation procedure FTS continues the development of the new mechanisms for pre-trial settlement of tax disputes, including tax monitoring. Changes of the price situation on the world markets, the weakening of external demand in key energy sources, the national currency devaluation is perceived by the tax authorities as the scenario conditions of the development of the economy, but the effective tax administration demonstrates the ability of budget to withstand financial and economic shocks

Suggested Citation

  • Mishustin, Michael V., 2016. "Factors of Growth of Tax Revenues: A Macroeconomic Approach," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 8-27, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1651

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    More about this item


    tax revenues; budget-forming taxes; factor analysis; economic crisis; tax administration;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy


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