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Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the New Member States and the Euro Zone. The Case of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Dumitru, Ionut

    (1Academy of the Economic Studies Bucharest and Head of RESEARCH with Raiffeisen Bank Romania)

  • Dumitru, Ionela

    (Academy of the Economic Studies Bucharest)

Abstract

This paper assesses the correlation of supply and demand shocks between New Member States (NMS), including Romania, and the Eurozone. Using a structural VAR approach, we estimated the similarity between demand (both nominal and real) and supply shocks between NMS and the Eurozone, showing that the demand shocks are still negatively correlated with the Eurozone for some NMS, including Romania. Also, using a moving window, we estimated that the correlation of shocks increased over time, especially in the case of supply shocks. Even for some core members of the Eurozone, we find that the demand shocks seem to be idiosyncratic. The main conclusion of our paper is the fact that Romania, as well as some other NMS countries, still need time to become more synchronized and to avoid the occurrence of asymmetric shocks once they become members of the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2011. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the New Member States and the Euro Zone. The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:1:p:5-19
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Beck, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization In European Union: Regional Perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 785-815, December.
    2. Tudor Mugurel Aursulesei & Liviu - George Maha, 2020. "Dysfunctions Of The European Monetary Union," Junior Scientific Researcher, SC Research Publishing SRL, vol. 6(1), pages 82-91, May.
    3. Henryk Bąk & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2017. "The symmetry of demand and supply shocks in the European Monetary Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 1-44.
    4. Tudor Mugurel AURSULESEI, 2018. "The sustainability of Romania's accession to the Euro Area - A political project anchored in economic reality," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10(4), pages 480-490, January.
    5. Zapodeanu Daniela, 2012. "Real And Nominal Convergence, The Syncronization Of Business Cycles Between The New Eurozone Members (Nem) Slovenia, Slovakia, Cyprus , Estonia And The Core Eurozone," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 629-634, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal currency area; supply and demand shocks; business cycle synchronization; euro adoption; convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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