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Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries

Author

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  • Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana

    (Babe Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

Abstract

hypothesis (GLE) for the Central and Eastern European Countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) through cointegration and causality tests. The estimation is carried out within finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) models in levels, in first-differences and error correction models. When considering bivariate systems, causality from exports to GDP is obtained for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Causality from GDP to exports is indicated for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia. We also investigate if the above results still hold when including the other relevant component of the foreign trade, i.e. imports. In trivariate systems, ELG remains valid in the Czech Republic only and becomes valid in Lithuania while GLE is validated in Hungary, Romania and Slovenia.

Suggested Citation

  • Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana, 2009. "Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 105-117, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:2:p:105-117
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oana Cristina Popovici & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2016. "Economic Growth, Foreign Investments and Exports in Romania: A VECM Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 95-122, September.
    2. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    3. Simut Ramona, 2012. "The Impact Of Investments, Exports, And Openness On Economic Growth. A Comparative Study On The East European Countries," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 420-425, December.
    4. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dajcman, Silvio & Festic, Mejra, 2012. "The Interdependence of the Stock Markets of Slovenia, The Czech Republic and Hungary with Some Developed European Stock Markets – The Effects of Joining the European Union and the Global Financial Cri," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 163-180, December.
    6. Daniela Zapodeanu & Mihail Ioan Cociuba, 2010. "Linking Money Supply With The Gross Domestic Product In Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(12), pages 1-50.
    7. Ramona Simut & Ioana Mester, 2014. "An Investigation Of Cointegration And Causality Between Investments, Exports, Openness, Industrial Production And Economic Growth: A Comparative Study For The East European Countries," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 369-378, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEE countries; exports; economic growth; imports; cointegration; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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