The Impact of Digitalization of Concessional Lending on the Export Potential of Uzbekistan’s Agro-Industrial Complex

Introduction. The digital transformation of agriculture in developing economies confronts the challenge of identifying the most effective allocation of limited investment resources. The present study is oriented toward identifying the relationship between the digitalization of concessional lending and the export potential of Uzbekistan’s Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC). The hypothesis posits that the digitalization of financial services exerts a more significant influence on export performance than the adoption of digital production technologies. Materials and Methods. The investigation is grounded in an analysis of statistical data from the Agency for Agricultural Development of Uzbekistan for the 2020–2024 period, encompassing indicators of lending digitalization through the “Agroplatform” information system and export performance metrics for fruit and vegetable products. The methodological toolkit comprised time‑series correlation analysis and conceptual structural equation modeling (SEM) with two latent variables – “Digitalization of Lending” and “Export Potential” – operationalized through eight measurable indicators. Results. A conceptual SEM model was developed, constituting a ready‑made methodological instrument for subsequent research. Three channels through which digitalization influences exports were identified: reduction of transaction costs, enhancement of product quality, and diversification of export markets. Conclusion. The digitalization of concessional lending constitutes a strategic instrument for enhancing the global competitiveness of Uzbekistan’s agricultural sector. The scientific novelty resides in demonstrating that, for developing economies, investment in financial services digitalization is more critical than the adoption of digital production technologies. The practical significance lies in substantiating a policy for agricultural digital transformation oriented toward overcoming limited access to capital – the primary obstacle to farm export activity.