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El modelo “P estrella”: un análisis empírico

Author

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  • Liquitaya, José D.

    (Profesor Investigador y jefe del C.A. “Modelos Macroeconómicos”, Departamento de Economía, U.A.M. – Iztapalapa)

Abstract

In this paper, we have empirically tested the performance of the P Star model in the Mexican economy with data of 1985:4–2007:4 period. It is shown that long run equilibrium relationship works as expected according to the model. Besides, the error correction model constructed by using the gap between actual prices and the long term equilibrium price level (the ‘error correction mechanism’) offers a consistent explanation for the short run dynamics in prices. On the other hand, the P Star approach shows a forecasting ability similar to that presented for analogous studies about the Mexican economy and several other countries. Finally, the results support the option of a direct inflation target (instead monetary aggregate) as the intermediate variable of the monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Liquitaya, José D., 2008. "El modelo “P estrella”: un análisis empírico," Revista Nicolaita de Estudios Económicos, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, vol. 0(1), pages 25-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:rnicee:0020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; error correction model; forecast of inflation; monetary. policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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