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Criminalidad y políticas de seguridad en el Estado de México 1997-2023

Author

Listed:
  • Reyes Terrón, Angel Mauricio

    (Gobierno del Estado de México)

  • Valdés Hernández, Gonzalo

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México)

Abstract

El artículo analiza la evolución y dinámica de la incidencia delictiva en el Estado de México, evaluando gráficamente el impacto de las políticas de seguridad ciudadana que se implementaron durante la administración gubernamental para el periodo 2017-2023. Con este propósito, se aplica el modelo Autorregresivo, Integrado de Promedios Móviles, el cual permite determinar el comportamiento subyacente para una selección de variables o delitos que afectan negativamente a la sociedad mexiquense. El estudio es relevante ya que aprovecha las bases de información disponibles y aplica la metodología mencionada a fin de llevar a cabo un monitoreo y evaluación continuos acerca de las tendencias, así como de las medidas de intervención pública instrumentadas para mitigar el fenómeno delictivo, lo que puede resultar metodológicamente novedoso a nivel nacional, subnacional y local en el caso mexicano, contribuyendo a mejorar la toma de decisiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Reyes Terrón, Angel Mauricio & Valdés Hernández, Gonzalo, 2025. "Criminalidad y políticas de seguridad en el Estado de México 1997-2023," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 43, pages 43-84, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:2024
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    File URL: https://iisec.ucb.edu.bo/publicacion/criminalidad-y-politicas-de-seguridad-en-el-estado-de-mexico-1997-2023
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incidencia delictiva; series de tiempo; modelo autorregresivo; integrado de promedios móviles; evaluación de impacto; nivel subnacional;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories

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