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Análisis y pronóstico de la demanda de potencia eléctrica en Bolivia: una aplicación de redes neuronales

  • Sanjinés, Gimmy Nardó


    (Instituto de Investigaciones Socio Económicas (IISEC-UCB))

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    El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es analizar la demanda de energía eléctrica en Bolivia con base en el pronóstico de series de tiempo. La predicción de datos futuros desde la perspectiva económica es importante porque se utiliza para optimizar la asignación de la energía en el tiempo, bajo la premisa de que cualquier mejora en la disminución del error de pronóstico representa una mejora en el excedente del consumidor. El pronóstico, por su complejidad, es realizado básicamente mediante cuatro fases; modelos armónicos, modelos Arima x Sarima, modelos Arma-Garch y finalmente modelos con base en redes neuronales artificiales. Los resultados muestran que el mínimo error se logra utilizando redes neuronales artificiales, y finalmente se concluye que el beneficio económico por la implementación de los modelos de redes neuronales artificiales en la predicción de la demanda de potencia eléctrica se presenta por la reducción de los costos incrementales generados por el error de pronóstico.

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    Article provided by Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana in its journal Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): 15 (Mayo)
    Pages: 45-77

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1502
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Universidad católica Boliviana San Pablo, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio Económicas, Av. 14 de septiembre 4807. Obrajes, La Paz, Bolivia
    Phone: (591-2) 784159
    Fax: (591-2) 786707
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