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International Supply Chains as Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks


  • Escaith, Hubert

    () (World Trade Organization)

  • Gonguet, Fabien

    () (Ecole Polytechnique-ENSAE)


The article analyses the role of international supply chains as transmission channels of a financial shock. Because individual firms are interdependent and rely on each other, either as supplier or client, a financial shock affecting a single firm, such as the termination of a line of credit, reverberates through the productive chain. The transmission of the initial financial shock through real channels is tracked by modelling international input-output interactions. When banks operate at the limit of their institutional capacity, defined by the capital adequacy ratio, and if assets are priced to market, then a resonance effect amplifies the back and forth transmission between real and monetary circuits. The paper illustrates the proposed methodology on the USA and 9 developed and developing Asian economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2011. "International Supply Chains as Real Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 31, pages 83-97.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:1446

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    2. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
    3. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    4. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    5. Hand, David & Yu, Keming, 2009. "Justifying adverse actions with new scorecard technologies," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 26, pages 13-17.
    6. Shojai, Shahin, 2009. "Economists' Hubris - The Case of Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 26, pages 4-12.
    7. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    8. Boudoukh, Jacob, et al, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities in a Multifactor Interest Rate Environment: A Multivariate Density Estimation Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 405-446.
    9. Frank Fabozzi & Vinod Kothari, 2007. "Securitization: The Tool of Financial Transformation," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2495, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2007.
    10. Shojai, Shahin & Feiger, George, 2009. "Economists’ hubris – the case of asset pricing," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 27, pages 9-13.
    11. Hunter, Greg, 2009. "Anatomy of the 2008 financial crisis: an economic analysis postmortem," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 27, pages 45-48.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vivek Kandiah & Hubert Escaith & Dima L. Shepelyansky, 2015. "Google matrix of the world network of economic activities," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 88(7), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Diakantoni, Antonia & Escaith, Hubert, 2012. "Reassessing effective protection rates in a trade in tasks perspective: Evolution of trade policy in "Factory Asia"," MPRA Paper 41723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. V. Kandiah & H. Escaith & D. L. Shepelyansky, 2015. "Contagion effects in the world network of economic activities," Papers 1507.03278,
    4. Hubert Escaith, 2014. "Mapping global value chains and measuring trade in tasks," Chapters,in: Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 9, pages 287-337 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. ITO Yukiko, 2017. "Has the Offshore Service Network Been Expanded by Japanese Firms?," Discussion papers 17107, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item


    international supply chains; monetary circuit; real linkages; transmission channels; financial shock; Input-Output;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure


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