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A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership : The Case of Ukraine

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  • Shepotylo, Oleksandr

    () (Kyiv School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios. The methodology is based on the disaggregated gravity equation, which is applied to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member countries. In particular, the paper measures the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement from the standpoint of Ukraine - a country that has been lost in transition. This angle allows estimating the costs of non-integration that occurred due to trade and investment diversion, and forgone opportunity to carry out structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. According to the results, the EU accession would have had a positive effect on total export volumes and would have changed the composition of Ukrainian exports by almost doubling exports of manufactured goods by 2007. The costs of non-integration accumulate towards the end of the investigated period. Projecting the results into the future clearly indicates that the benefits of the EU accession for Ukraine would have been unambiguously positive and would overweight benefits of the CIS integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2010. "A Gravity Model of Net Benefits of EU Membership : The Case of Ukraine," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 676-702.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0521
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow & Tiem Phamduc, 2003. "Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services," NBER Chapters,in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    3. Jesper Jensen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2014. "The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 6, pages 125-149 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
    5. Hansen, Terje & Koopmans, Tjalling C., 1972. "On the definition and computation of a capital stock invariant under optimization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 487-523, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "The impact of European enlargement on the direction and prospects of Brussels exports," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 188-214.
    2. Anders Aslund, 2013. "Ukraine's Choice: European Association Agreement or Eurasian Union?," Policy Briefs PB13-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Fuenfzig, Michael, 2016. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Proposed China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 78040, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity Model; EU Enlargement; Ukraine; CIS; Heterogeneous Firms; Trade Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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