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The Relationship Between Financial Condition and Business Cycle in Mongolia

Author

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  • Doojav, Gan-Ochir

    (The Bank of Mongolia)

  • Purevdorj, Munkhbayar

    (The Bank of Mongolia)

Abstract

This paper examines the interactions between financial conditions and business cycles in Mongolia, a small open economy, heavily depending on commodity exports. We construct two financial conditions indexes based on the reduced form IS model and the vector autoregression (VAR) model as surveillance tools to quantify the degree of the financial conditions. We find that real short-term interest rate and real effective exchange rate gap get a higher weight in the FCIs. Both business and financial cycles are often more pronounced in Mongolia, and financial condition is dependent of the financial and monetary policies in place. The analysis of the predictive power of the FCIs for business cycles shows that they have predictive information for the near-term economic activities. FCIs are also helpful in signaling inflation turning points.

Suggested Citation

  • Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Purevdorj, Munkhbayar, 2019. "The Relationship Between Financial Condition and Business Cycle in Mongolia," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 23(2), pages 203-223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0361
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2019.23.2.361
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    Keywords

    Financial Condition Index; Business Cycle; Leading Indicator; Weighted Sum Approach; Mongolia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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