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Medium and Long-Term Projections of Foodgrain Demand, Supply and Trade Balance in Bangladesh


  • Shahabuddin , Quazi

    (Research Director, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS))

  • Zohir, Sajjad

    (Senior Research Fellow, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS))


The shape of development in the medium to long-term is most likely to be influenced in a significant way by the dynamics of foodgrain demand-supply balance in the country. A consistent framework for projection of medium and long-term demand and supply of foodgrains in Bangladesh has, therefore, been developed in this paper. The analysis involves a prospective view of future demand for rice and wheat, and the growth of foodgrain production, particularly rice under increasing resource constraints. Alternative projections of foodgrain supply, demand and trade balance in year 2000 and beyond (upto year 2020) are presented in the paper. The exercise demonstrates that Bangladesh is expected to produce, under favourable conditions, enough rice to meet domestic demand, but would be unable to export regular varieties of rice due to its inability to generate surplus at a internationally competitive price. The prospect of export of aromatic varieties of rice, however, seems quite encouraging. Import of wheat (ranging between about one million ton in 2000 to about two million tons in 2020) will need to continue. The policy implications of alternative projection scenario have been spelt out in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahabuddin , Quazi & Zohir, Sajjad, 1995. "Medium and Long-Term Projections of Foodgrain Demand, Supply and Trade Balance in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 23(3-4), pages 21-45, Sept-Dec.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0343

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    Cited by:

    1. Hossain, Monzur & Yunus, Mohammad, 2016. "Estimates of Per Capita Consumption of Food Grains in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 39(1-2), pages 103-116, March-Jun.
    2. Ahmed, Nazneen & Bakht, Zaid & Dorosh, Paul A. & Shahabuddin, Quazi, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Bangladesh," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48481, World Bank.

    More about this item


    Rice; Income elasticity of demand; Supply and demand; Imports; Agricultural prices; Irrigation canals; Market prices; Balance of trade; Domestic prices;

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines


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