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Dépendance temporelle, hétérogénéité et coûts de licenciement


  • Decreuse, Bruno

    (GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée)


This paper considers a novel theoretical argument allowing for the presence of duration dependence in individual exit rates of unemployment. If unemployed are ex ante heterogenous and if their skills are imperfectly observable, firing of the least able is an endogenous phenomenon that unemployed have an incentive to hide. Then, the unemployment duration conveys a (negative) signal about the quality of the worker, which firms use to evaluate his employability. A decrease in firing costs can make the economy topple from an equilibrium with unemployment, but without state dependence, over an equilibrium with discrimination against the long-term unemployed. Ce travail propose un mécanisme nouveau permettant d’expliquer la présence de dépendance temporelle dans les risques individuels de sortie du chômage. Lorsque les chômeurs sont ex ante hétérogènes et que leur compétence est imparfaitement observable, le licenciement des moins doués est un phénomène endogène qu’ils s’efforcent de masquer. La durée de chômage véhicule alors une information sur la qualité du travailleur considéré, dont les firmes se servent pour jauger de son employabilité. Une baisse des coûts de licenciement peut faire basculer l’économie d’un équilibre avec chômage, mais sans exclusion, à une économie caractérisée par l’exclusion des chômeurs de longue durée.

Suggested Citation

  • Decreuse, Bruno, 2001. "Dépendance temporelle, hétérogénéité et coûts de licenciement," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 191-206, juin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:77:y:2001:i:2:p:191-206

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    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J71 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Discrimination - - - Hiring and Firing


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