IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rce/rvceco/hdbkv904.html

Volatilidad de la inflación y del crecimiento económico en Centroamérica

Author

Listed:
  • Claros Cerrato, Francis Mayela

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Administrativas y Contables)

  • Cruz Torres, Cristian Andrés

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Administrativas y Contables)

Abstract

En este estudio se analizó la volatilidad de la inflación y del crecimiento económico de los cinco países que conforman Centroamérica mediante un modelo VARMA-GARCH en un contexto bayesiano. Para su estimación, se empleó el método Monte Carlo Hamiltoniano (MCH), suponiendo choques normales y t-Student. Los resultados muestran que la incertidumbre en la inflación genera mayor inflación en Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua y Costa Rica, lo que confirma la hipótesis de Friedman (1977). Además, se encontró que, en todas las economías analizadas, la volatilidad en el crecimiento de la producción influye también en su comportamiento, en línea con la teoría del ahorro precautorio. Asimismo, en cuatro países, la volatilidad del crecimiento económico afecta la inflación, hecho que respalda la hipótesis de la curva de Phillips. Finalmente, no se encontró evidencia de que la volatilidad de la inflación influya en el crecimiento económico.

Suggested Citation

  • Claros Cerrato, Francis Mayela & Cruz Torres, Cristian Andrés, 2026. "Volatilidad de la inflación y del crecimiento económico en Centroamérica," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 44(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:rce:rvceco:hdbkv904
    DOI: 10.15517/hdbkv904
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.15517/hdbkv904
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/reconomicas/article/download/11089/23420
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/reconomicas/article/download/11089/23421
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.15517/hdbkv904?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rce:rvceco:hdbkv904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis J. Hall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiucrcr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.