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Identificando el riesgo fiscal de los gobiernos subnacionales en el Perú

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  • Jiménez, Alvaro
  • Montoro, Carlos

Abstract

En este trabajo se presentan dos metodologías para identificar a aquellos gobiernos subnacionales que presentan una mayor incidencia al riesgo fiscal agregado: el análisis de conglomerados (clustering) y la construcción de indicadores cuantitativos (scoring). Estas metodologías permiten monitorear los riesgos fiscales de los gobiernos subnacionales de forma eficiente, teniendo en cuenta su contribución al riesgo agregado y la heterogeneidad existente entre los mismos, con el objetivo de asegurar cuentas fiscales sólidas y sostenibles. Para ello, se analizan tres dimensiones que capturan la incidencia al riesgo fiscal agregado: el tamaño económico, el grado de apalancamiento y el grado de dependencia de sus ingresos a fuentes de financiamiento que no son de su control. El análisis se realiza para los 1861 gobiernos subnacionales para los que se cuenta de información disponible para el 2015. La primera metodología permite identificar 134 gobiernos subnacionales con mayor incidencia al riesgo fiscal agregado, y la segunda metodología permite refinar dicha clasificación, estableciendo un ordenamiento más transparente entre cada uno de los gobiernos subnacionales.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiménez, Alvaro & Montoro, Carlos, 2018. "Identificando el riesgo fiscal de los gobiernos subnacionales en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 35, pages 83-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-35-04
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid

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